* while substantial uncertainty remains, clinical severity appears less than that seen in 1918 but comparable with that seen in 1957… Transmissibility is therefore substantially higher than seasonal flu, and comparable with lower estimates of R0 obtained from previous influenza pandemics… The secondary attack rate of seasonal influenza ranges from 5% to 15%. Current estimates of the secondary attack rate of H1N1 range from 22% to 33%.*
All subject to big margins of error, till firmer data is inputed.
I’m not going to live in fear of H1N1, but the truth is that we really will not know till the fall flu season is underway.
Published this week in “Science”:
* while substantial uncertainty remains, clinical severity appears less than that seen in 1918 but comparable with that seen in 1957… Transmissibility is therefore substantially higher than seasonal flu, and comparable with lower estimates of R0 obtained from previous influenza pandemics… The secondary attack rate of seasonal influenza ranges from 5% to 15%. Current estimates of the secondary attack rate of H1N1 range from 22% to 33%.*
All subject to big margins of error, till firmer data is inputed.
I’m not going to live in fear of H1N1, but the truth is that we really will not know till the fall flu season is underway.