Polls a year out from the election — before we’ve even had the first primaries — mean less than nothing. If polls from a year before were what elected presidents, we would have had either President Hillary Clinton or Rudy Giuliani in 2008, President Mitt Romney in 2012, President Hillary again in 2016 (when Trump was not even being taken seriously), President and President Bernie Sanders in 2020.
Trump is peaking way too early. Biden is preparing a heavy advertising blitz for 2024, but he is mostly holding his fire until Trump clinches the Republican nomination. He does not want to risk accidentally helping one of Trump’s primary rivals (though they currently seem to be beyond help).
Biden wants to run against Trump.
Trump is crazy, reality-detached and obsessed with a tyrannical promise to weaponize the Justice Department and do all the things he is falsely accusing Biden of doing (the old Goebbels strategy of turning your own weaknesses against those you oppose).
The swing voters who are actually up for grabs won’t be paying attention until after the conventions. We are already seeing gas prices down, food prices down, prescription drug prices are down, low unemployment, wages up, unions getting stronger and by next summer people will be in a much better mood, and Biden will be spending big to remind them of how much better off they are.
Biden’s target is for the poll that counts. Timing is everything. The election to win is November 2024, not November 2023. Joe Biden knows how to do this. He won his first election to the Senate in 1972 — the year Nixon carried 49 states and Republicans swept the congress. Biden won despite being only 29 (turned 30 before being sworn in) and unseating a popular Republican incumbent in a Republican year. In the 50+ years since, Biden has never lost a general election.
Polls a year out from the election — before we’ve even had the first primaries — mean less than nothing. If polls from a year before were what elected presidents, we would have had either President Hillary Clinton or Rudy Giuliani in 2008, President Mitt Romney in 2012, President Hillary again in 2016 (when Trump was not even being taken seriously), President and President Bernie Sanders in 2020.
Trump is peaking way too early. Biden is preparing a heavy advertising blitz for 2024, but he is mostly holding his fire until Trump clinches the Republican nomination. He does not want to risk accidentally helping one of Trump’s primary rivals (though they currently seem to be beyond help).
Biden wants to run against Trump.
Trump is crazy, reality-detached and obsessed with a tyrannical promise to weaponize the Justice Department and do all the things he is falsely accusing Biden of doing (the old Goebbels strategy of turning your own weaknesses against those you oppose).
The swing voters who are actually up for grabs won’t be paying attention until after the conventions. We are already seeing gas prices down, food prices down, prescription drug prices are down, low unemployment, wages up, unions getting stronger and by next summer people will be in a much better mood, and Biden will be spending big to remind them of how much better off they are.
Biden’s target is for the poll that counts. Timing is everything. The election to win is November 2024, not November 2023. Joe Biden knows how to do this. He won his first election to the Senate in 1972 — the year Nixon carried 49 states and Republicans swept the congress. Biden won despite being only 29 (turned 30 before being sworn in) and unseating a popular Republican incumbent in a Republican year. In the 50+ years since, Biden has never lost a general election.