One of the greatest challenges of the coronavirus pandemic is that all levels of policy makers need to make decisions with imperfect information. Scientists still don’t know everything about how this virus is transmitted, and due to the lack of widespread testing, they also don’t know, exactly, how prevalent it is.
They don’t know if the virus will show a strong seasonal effect, and decrease during the summer. They don’t know how this will all end.
One way they are trying to answer these questions is through modeling. Specifically, infectious disease models are tools — based on mathematical formulations — that try to game out what’s possible in the future.
These models are varied, often confusing to interpret, and are not crystal balls, especially because the ideal data isn’t yet available.
But they are a large part of what government leaders use to make decisions, influencing how resources are allocated to health care facilities and how social distancing orders are issued to the public.
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“What’s very important is not the details of the model, it’s that this is a virus that can crush health care,” says Bill Hanage, an epidemiologist who studies infectious diseases at Harvard.
“That’s not a model result, that’s an observation. We know it because of Wuhan, we know it because of Italy, because of Spain, we know it because, now, of New York.“
In New York state, thousands have died, and hospitals are at, or exceeding, capacity and struggling with equipment shortages. Covid-19 is “a freight train,” as Hanage calls it, and it has rammed into not just New York but several other parts of the United States.
All this, while the GOP decimates the science community to give tax breaks to the 1%. They can’t see any use in an education that doesn’t support capitalism, but tries to regulate it for safety’s sake. They care more about collecting interest on student loans than educating society.
They have bankrupted the country. Run amok, while Moscow Mitch has stacked the court. To avoid any justice that isn’t fabricated by Trump and Barr, they will have Hillary, Biden, Comey, Obama and Fauci investigated to prove the blame lies with them, the Deep State.
“Administration officials, speaking on the condition of anonymity to describe internal deliberations, say the White House has made a deliberate political calculation that it will better serve Trump’s interest to put the onus on governors — rather than the federal government — to figure out how to move ahead.”
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Yeah, I know. “Fake News.”
Because Trump would never put his own interests ahead of a few thousand people dying — they were losers anyway.
Cheapskate0 almost 5 years ago
So true. And he looks to want to hang around a lot longer than businesses would desire.
On the other hand, corona virus may just accelerate all those AI and automation takeovers – jobs that haven’t already been shipped overseas.
braindead Premium Member almost 5 years ago
“I take no responsibility for any of it!”
Silly Season almost 5 years ago
One of the greatest challenges of the coronavirus pandemic is that all levels of policy makers need to make decisions with imperfect information. Scientists still don’t know everything about how this virus is transmitted, and due to the lack of widespread testing, they also don’t know, exactly, how prevalent it is.
They don’t know if the virus will show a strong seasonal effect, and decrease during the summer. They don’t know how this will all end.
One way they are trying to answer these questions is through modeling. Specifically, infectious disease models are tools — based on mathematical formulations — that try to game out what’s possible in the future.
These models are varied, often confusing to interpret, and are not crystal balls, especially because the ideal data isn’t yet available.
But they are a large part of what government leaders use to make decisions, influencing how resources are allocated to health care facilities and how social distancing orders are issued to the public.
✄
“What’s very important is not the details of the model, it’s that this is a virus that can crush health care,” says Bill Hanage, an epidemiologist who studies infectious diseases at Harvard.
“That’s not a model result, that’s an observation. We know it because of Wuhan, we know it because of Italy, because of Spain, we know it because, now, of New York.“
In New York state, thousands have died, and hospitals are at, or exceeding, capacity and struggling with equipment shortages. Covid-19 is “a freight train,” as Hanage calls it, and it has rammed into not just New York but several other parts of the United States.
https://www.vox.com/science-and-health/2020/4/10/21209961/coronavirus-models-covid-19-limitations-imhe
feverjr Premium Member almost 5 years ago
All this, while the GOP decimates the science community to give tax breaks to the 1%. They can’t see any use in an education that doesn’t support capitalism, but tries to regulate it for safety’s sake. They care more about collecting interest on student loans than educating society.
They have bankrupted the country. Run amok, while Moscow Mitch has stacked the court. To avoid any justice that isn’t fabricated by Trump and Barr, they will have Hillary, Biden, Comey, Obama and Fauci investigated to prove the blame lies with them, the Deep State.
Kip W almost 5 years ago
Nothing like a good Coronavirus laff.
Ho.
Ho.
braindead Premium Member almost 5 years ago
Trump is now the leading cause of death in the United States.
And The Disciples chant “We’re Number One!”
braindead Premium Member almost 5 years ago
“Administration officials, speaking on the condition of anonymity to describe internal deliberations, say the White House has made a deliberate political calculation that it will better serve Trump’s interest to put the onus on governors — rather than the federal government — to figure out how to move ahead.”
===
Yeah, I know. “Fake News.”
Because Trump would never put his own interests ahead of a few thousand people dying — they were losers anyway.