The odds improve that you have chosen correctly, as with three choices you have a 33 percent chance and with two, you have a fifty percent chance. Let it ride!
Logic actually dictates that you should switch. The opening of a door that they know is not the correct one does not increase the chance that the original guess was correct. The more doors, the better your chances of winning if you switch. If there were 1000 doors, and you choose the first one, and they open all of them except the one you chose and door 768, with the car yet to be revealed, you would be an idiot if you did not change to door 768 if allowed to do so. Even with three doors, the odds of winning the car are twice as good if you switch.
If switching doors is like switching lines in the grocery store, then it doesn’t matter because the goat’s behind whatever door I pick - just as the line I’m NOT in always moves faster. And if I switch lines, the one I just moved to slows down.
Oh I took a wrong turn, it was the right turn
My turn to have me a ball
Boys at the shop told me just where to stop
If I wanted to play for it all
I didn’t know I’d find her on daytime TV
My whole world lies waiting behind door number three
I chose my apparel, wore a beer barrel
And they rolled me to the very first row
I held a big sign that said “Kiss me I’m a baker,
and Monty I sure need the dough!”
Then I grabbed that sucker by the throat
Until he called on me
Cause my whole world lies waiting behind door number three
And I don’t want what Jay’s got on his table
Or the box Carol Merrill points to on the floor
No, I’ll hold out just as long as I am able
Until I can unlock that lucky door
Well, she’s no big deal to most folks
But she’s everything to me
Cause my whole world lies waiting behind door number three
Oh Monty, Monty, Monty, I am walking down your hall
God be, I lost my seat but I’m not a man to crawl
No I didn’t get rich you son of a bleeep
I’ll be back just wait and see
Cause my whole world lies waiting behind door number three
Yes my whole world lies waiting behind door number three
Missing condition: Monty has to know where the prize is. If he opens a door by chance to reveal a goat, your odds are 50/50 if you switch. But if he /knows/ that he will be showing you a goat, then your odds go from 1/3 to 2/3 in switching.
your odds do not change from when you originally picked. just like on deal or no deal, your odds of having picked the right door or case are when you originally made the choice. after that, everything else is window dressing.
Why haven’t we heard from Marilyn Vos Savant? She knows the right answer to her question. I remember the back and forth in her column some time back, but sadly can’t recall which way it came out- which is why I still don’t have a goat of my own.
If there were ever 2 goats, they were behind the same door. It was usually a pretty good prize & a really good prize. The 3rd door could be a “goat” or maybe just a cheaper prize. Sometimes, to keep people guessing, they’d leave out the car, & it’d be a refrigerator, a blender & a puppy.
Most discussions of the three door problem make a common error of confusing reality with knowledge of reality. After one door is opened, with two doors left the odds are 50-50 so it makes no difference if you switch or not. Ignore any comparisons to card tricks or million-door examples; they are irrelevant to the fact there are two doors left. Ignore any analysis of the intentions of the game show host; they are just guesses and don’t change the simple facts.
(Sorry to hear about your problems, Pab. I hope things improve for you.)
Too many of us have family and friends in dire conditions just now (similar to yours). my 4 children were all doing well a few years ago, but now 3 of them are not. JSon 1 is struggling, in spite of having a dual PHD in mechanical and electrical engineering (all his latest projects were in medical prosthetics), earlier ones in robotics. Son 3 is unemployed in spite of being a licensed land surveyor in IL and very competent (and they have to sell their house in this depressed market; they remodeled the kitchen/dining by hand and have great landscaping they also did). Their outdoor work inspired the whole neighborhood! Daughter’s 2nd marriage produced a lovely son but other than that it was a disaster! Husband 2 put a 2nd mortgage on their house without her knowledge and has just run her into total bankruptcy. She has met another new “boyfriend” (possible 3rd husband) who paid for her visit to me this coming week with the kids (she has to return son to his dad by Christmas, so it is ending on the 24th). Our current economy STINKS! and I hope we don’t lose you, Pab. I joined this site just to be able to weigh in on my letter that you did yesterday.
Basqueian almost 15 years ago
The odds improve that you have chosen correctly, as with three choices you have a 33 percent chance and with two, you have a fifty percent chance. Let it ride!
Edcole1961 almost 15 years ago
Logic actually dictates that you should switch. The opening of a door that they know is not the correct one does not increase the chance that the original guess was correct. The more doors, the better your chances of winning if you switch. If there were 1000 doors, and you choose the first one, and they open all of them except the one you chose and door 768, with the car yet to be revealed, you would be an idiot if you did not change to door 768 if allowed to do so. Even with three doors, the odds of winning the car are twice as good if you switch.
The Old Wolf almost 15 years ago
Logic dictates that no matter which door you choose, you’ll end up with a basket of clothes pins. Monty Hall is my hero!
Hugh B. Hayve almost 15 years ago
All I know is, don’t choose the door with the narc behind it.
3hourtour Premium Member almost 15 years ago
..always change your choice.The odds are better that..you might see more hot babes…
Wildcard24365 almost 15 years ago
@Susan001: It just wouldn’t be the same.
Wildcard24365 almost 15 years ago
And the chances improving depends on you choosing one of the wrong doors in the first place, right?
Wildcard24365 almost 15 years ago
@Hugh B. Hayve: yeah, but the chance of scoring some blonde lebonese hash just makes my eyes water just thinking about it.
cdward almost 15 years ago
If switching doors is like switching lines in the grocery store, then it doesn’t matter because the goat’s behind whatever door I pick - just as the line I’m NOT in always moves faster. And if I switch lines, the one I just moved to slows down.
dbrugg almost 15 years ago
Monty Hall has been replaced by Wayne Brady, and at least in my market it runs after The Price is Right.
wn5pmr almost 15 years ago
I’m with Hugh B. Hayve & Wildcard24365… . . Her Maj should go onto “Lets make a dope deal”
Takiniteasy almost 15 years ago
Oh I took a wrong turn, it was the right turn My turn to have me a ball Boys at the shop told me just where to stop If I wanted to play for it all I didn’t know I’d find her on daytime TV My whole world lies waiting behind door number three
I chose my apparel, wore a beer barrel And they rolled me to the very first row I held a big sign that said “Kiss me I’m a baker, and Monty I sure need the dough!” Then I grabbed that sucker by the throat Until he called on me Cause my whole world lies waiting behind door number three
And I don’t want what Jay’s got on his table Or the box Carol Merrill points to on the floor No, I’ll hold out just as long as I am able Until I can unlock that lucky door Well, she’s no big deal to most folks But she’s everything to me Cause my whole world lies waiting behind door number three
Oh Monty, Monty, Monty, I am walking down your hall God be, I lost my seat but I’m not a man to crawl No I didn’t get rich you son of a bleeep I’ll be back just wait and see Cause my whole world lies waiting behind door number three Yes my whole world lies waiting behind door number three
–Jimmy Buffett, Door Number Three
eric stott almost 15 years ago
The odds are it’s cheaper to keep a goat than keep a car these days
Motivemagus almost 15 years ago
http://www.straightdope.com/columns/read/916/on-lets-make-a-deal-you-pick-door-1-monty-opens-door-2-no-prize-do-you-stay-with-door-1-or-switch-to-3
tedlogdon almost 15 years ago
But I have a car. What I don’t have is a goat. My chances just dropped from 2/3 to 1/2.
Technojunkie almost 15 years ago
Mmmm… goat steaks…
Rush Strong Premium Member almost 15 years ago
Missing condition: Monty has to know where the prize is. If he opens a door by chance to reveal a goat, your odds are 50/50 if you switch. But if he /knows/ that he will be showing you a goat, then your odds go from 1/3 to 2/3 in switching.
yyyguy almost 15 years ago
your odds do not change from when you originally picked. just like on deal or no deal, your odds of having picked the right door or case are when you originally made the choice. after that, everything else is window dressing.
rustyraby Premium Member almost 15 years ago
Why haven’t we heard from Marilyn Vos Savant? She knows the right answer to her question. I remember the back and forth in her column some time back, but sadly can’t recall which way it came out- which is why I still don’t have a goat of my own.
ChukLitl Premium Member almost 15 years ago
If there were ever 2 goats, they were behind the same door. It was usually a pretty good prize & a really good prize. The 3rd door could be a “goat” or maybe just a cheaper prize. Sometimes, to keep people guessing, they’d leave out the car, & it’d be a refrigerator, a blender & a puppy.
Somnambulance almost 15 years ago
Actually Monte shows up now and again on the Game Show Network giving away 1973 Pontiacs and such. He hasn’t aged a day.
kfaatz925 over 14 years ago
I don’t know, but I expect if you have the wrong door, that’ll get your goat.
Pab Sungenis creator over 14 years ago
For those who want an update: http://bit.ly/7b79wk
pschearer Premium Member over 14 years ago
Most discussions of the three door problem make a common error of confusing reality with knowledge of reality. After one door is opened, with two doors left the odds are 50-50 so it makes no difference if you switch or not. Ignore any comparisons to card tricks or million-door examples; they are irrelevant to the fact there are two doors left. Ignore any analysis of the intentions of the game show host; they are just guesses and don’t change the simple facts.
(Sorry to hear about your problems, Pab. I hope things improve for you.)
vldazzle over 14 years ago
Too many of us have family and friends in dire conditions just now (similar to yours). my 4 children were all doing well a few years ago, but now 3 of them are not. JSon 1 is struggling, in spite of having a dual PHD in mechanical and electrical engineering (all his latest projects were in medical prosthetics), earlier ones in robotics. Son 3 is unemployed in spite of being a licensed land surveyor in IL and very competent (and they have to sell their house in this depressed market; they remodeled the kitchen/dining by hand and have great landscaping they also did). Their outdoor work inspired the whole neighborhood! Daughter’s 2nd marriage produced a lovely son but other than that it was a disaster! Husband 2 put a 2nd mortgage on their house without her knowledge and has just run her into total bankruptcy. She has met another new “boyfriend” (possible 3rd husband) who paid for her visit to me this coming week with the kids (she has to return son to his dad by Christmas, so it is ending on the 24th). Our current economy STINKS! and I hope we don’t lose you, Pab. I joined this site just to be able to weigh in on my letter that you did yesterday.