Frazz by Jef Mallett for February 06, 2022

The forecasts are actually taken from the past based on models of what has heppened before under similar conditions.

Professional meteorologists will tell you that there’s a pretty large error bar on forecasts more than a week out, but they keep refining them as conditions change, so they’re really pretty good by the time they’re only a day away.

When I reached adulthood and needed to know the forecast for the day since I was working outside, I tuned in the “weather guesser” on the radio. Where I was, the rule of thumb was: If it’s winter, it’ll rain. If it’s summer it’ll only rain on the weekends. And in the spring and fall, whatever the weather guesser tells you, go with the opposite. Now, (when it doesn’t matter so much), we complain that their forecasts are uniformly off by several degrees because they forecast for the airport and we live a few miles away and a couple of hundred feet higher. They usually miss on fog, too, for the same reason. 1000% better!

What I love (not really) is when the morning news shows you a detailed graphic of what the weather is at the moment, but they don’t tell you what it will be for the rest of the day.

Svalbard: A Norwegian archipelago in the Arctic ocean.

The AccuWeather app would display “Rain beginning in 46 minutes”. 46 minutes? That’s pretty precise, although not quite accurate. That’s like Mr. Spock saying they will “Arrive at Centon12 in approximately 21.6 hours.” Stating ‘approximately’ and a figure in decimals is not precision.

Does Svalbard have a ZIP code?

F.Y.I., as recently as seventy years ago, weather “fronts” were known … thanks to war terminology; and we had Telegraph in nearly all areas. They knew the weather up stream and reported that for tomorrow.

Today’s high-tech radar and computer models give little more than a couple days worth of forecasting but lots of toys.

It is said layers work best because they can be removed or added as the day’s weather varies. Depends where one lives. Some places need very few, other would require a backpack and a sherpa.

I have seen the sun yesterday. For a moment I found all this blue sky and light so strange… Today it is back to windy, stormy, grey and drizzle or rain. Since the beginning of winter it’s been storm after storm after storm, with one or two days (when we are lucky) between them. I am yearning for a whole week of sun and blue sky.

Hang a rope outside your window. If it moves, it’s windy. If wet, it’s raining.

Love my Weather Network app. That, Strava and a good road bike is all I need to have a great day.

I have to admit i often check my tablet for the temperature as opposed to getting up and looking at the outdoor thermometer.

Our weather forecasting came from bored telegraph operators commenting on their local weather and monitoring its progress. Nothing else before that was broad or fast enough to stay ahead of its path.

As they say, LOTW…

Yesterday it was sunny like that here, but the temperatures were below freezing with wind chills in the teens (Fahrenheit). I’d still have bundled up if I had to walk any distance outdoors.

A week ago Wednesday, they were forecasting 5.6 inches of snow for this Wednesday. Yes, that accurate. Monday the forecast was “a bit of snow Wednesday, and a little snow Thursday.” We actually got about two inches. Tons of snow did fall south of here, though.

I’ve never been to Svalbard. Is it ever not bilzzarding there?

So difficult to choose. Comox or Courtenay.

Ahhh… I remember Svalbard.

WKRP in Cincinnati-Les Nessman’s Eye Witness weather. He sat looking out the window and witnessed the weather.

You need to check in-depth weather reports first.

One of my ex-gf’s daughter is a meteorologist in the U.S. Air Force, and i cornered her with the question,"is it true that over 48 hrs, it’s all just educated speculation?’ After a bit of prefacing, she admitted to such.