Arlo and Janis by Jimmy Johnson for June 10, 2021

79.62% of statistics are made up on the spot! 8^ )

Today where I am at they are saying there is a 1% chance of rain. So, if it does rain they can still claim that they said it might rain.

Sounds like Janis is following one of the NOAA websites. Saw some study that rated their short term forecasts to be pretty good. It’s only when they push it to a week or more that it drops below 90% accuracy.

Arlo must not know how those numbers are derived.

There are three types of people. Those who understand math, and those who don’t.

I think they let meteorologists decide if it’s going to rain in any given hour. Then they put 100 of them in a room and say “who says it’s going to rain at 11? Raise your hand. 15… 35… looks like 48. Write down 48% chance of rain.”

Let’s not be too hard on the weather forecasters, after all forecasting is not a breeze

What do you have to do to win gold at the weather forecasting competition?

You have to beat the raining champion!

Fortune tellers are disparaged and weather forecasters respected, although they have about the same accuracy rate. At least, they both beat financial advisers for accuracy and respect.

I basically ignore anything except “precipitation amounts between …”. Anything else is just random drizzle, maybe.

They can’t get the weather right, what makes you think they’d get the math right, Arlo?!

There are “weather geeks” out there Arlo, who eat this all up with a spoon because a fork might leak.

I’d be happy with the forecast rounded to 0%, 50% or 100%

The other day I had 100% chance of rain in the front yard and 0% chance of rain in the back yard – and I have a small yard!

They think they’re fooling 56.7% of those reading their stats… ⛈ ☔

For some reason 45 or 6 to 4 (Chicago) started up in the back of my head.

50 % really means they don’t know.

Put one hand in a glass of boiling water and the other in ice water and statistically you’re comfortable.

Like the progress meter on my computer. “Download will complete in two hours. Now 30 seconds. Oh, now it’s 20 minutes.”

I’m with Arlo, this is very common now as forecasts are created by algorithm. Classic case of too much precision for the margin of error. Precision is not accuracy.

The POP (possibility of precipitation) numbers are derived by multilplying the degree of a predicting entity’s confidence that it will rain by that same entity’s estimate of what percentage of its coverage area will experience that rain. If a weatherman is 100% sure that it will rain over 50% of the area under consideration, the POP will be 100%x50% (1.00×.50) or 50%

“whom”, not “who”.

I’ve said it before…the difference between a meteorologist and a proctologist is one knows his crap, one doesn’t.

N. W. S. —No Worthwhile Science.

I love when weather app says rain starting in 7 minutes. Such accuracy is not possible.

Ah, the old Arlo is back.

The only time the weather people are wrong if they say it’s a 100% chance of rain or snow and it does not

Janis is comfortable yet Arlo is cold?

No, Arlo is right local weather forecasters just guess 90% of the time!

One of my ex’es daughter is a meteorologist in the Air Force..one time I asked her is it true that after 48 hrs, it’s only educated speculation? after a pause to decide whether to tell me the truth or not, she nodded yes.

The forecasts on my phone seem to have it down to the hour for rain here.

Not too great on long range forecasts but I don’t expect that would be possible without a quantum computer that has weather sensors every 100 feet both on the ground and in the air and on and under the oceans and seas.

100 0/0. chance of rain after 12 pm today, it is now 7:45pmstill no rain… glad I didn’t hold my breath

So, the forecast is saying there is a 5% chance of rain between 10 and 11; and a 4% chance between 11 and 12.